Surf Report for Hawaii
Surf along north facing shores will be 2 to 4 feet through Monday.
Surf along east facing shores will be 2 to 4 feet today, lowering to 1 to 3 feet Monday.
Surf along west facing shores will be 1 to 3 feet through Monday.
Surf along south facing shores will be 3 to 5 feet, with occasional higher sets, through Monday.
Surf heights are forecast heights of the face, or front, of waves. The surf forecast is based on the significant wave height, the average height of the one third largest waves, at the locations of the largest breakers. Some waves may be more than twice as high as the significant wave height. Expect to encounter rip currents in or near any surf zone.
|SWL HGT||Open ocean swell height measured from trough to crestin feet located 20 nautical miles offshore|
|DMNT DIR||Dominant direction typically +/-10 degrees in 16 compasspoints|
|DMNT PD||Dominant period in seconds|
|H1/3||Significant wave height in the surf zone|
|H1/10||Average height in the highest one-tenth waves in the surfzone|
|HGT TEND||Height tendency of swell (valid values: UP/DOWN/SAME)|
|PROB||Probability of occurrence (valid values: HIGH/MED/LOW)|
|WIND SPD||Open water wind speed measured in knots located20 nautical miles offshore|
|WIND DIR||Wind direction in 16 compass points|
|SPD TEND||Wind speed tendency (valid values: UP/DOWN/SAME)|
DISCUSSION: SUMMARY...Spring conditions with surf from northern and southern hemisphere's mid latitude sources.
DETAILED:. Mid Friday on northern shores has declining breakers from 350-010 degrees at levels below the May average. The present event is predicted to fade late Friday with a new NNE episode filling in Saturday.
The N Pacific mid latitudes have been reluctant to give in to summer with an active cyclonic pattern in May keeping more days than normal near to above average. The trend is expected to hold into the early days of June, after which summery conditions wrestle control.
A fast-moving low pressure NNW of Hawaii 5/25 reached the Gulf of Alaska 5/27. The near average surf locally Friday 5/29 is in decline from the early stage when the fetch was within 900 nm to our NNW to N. The PacIOOS/CDIP Waimea, Oahu buoy shows this event peaked locally Wednesday night and has been slowly dropping into Friday as the direction veered from near 320 to 360 degrees.
The low pressure system occluded south of Kodiak, Alaska 5/27. There was a donut-shaped pattern to the wave model output of seas from the symmetric, slow-moving low. The strongest winds aimed at Hawaii to gales over a narrow fetch beyond 1600 nm away were on 5/27. The system weakened to near gale by 5/28 and sub gale 5/29. It should make for a small, long-lived event.
Wave Watch III trends the surf up off Oahu at dawn on Saturday, though heights should remain below average until mid day from 000-020 degrees. The event should peak Saturday night with heights holding near average Sunday, then falling below average Monday. The event could linger near the tiny bracket on Tuesday from the same direction.
A new low pressure formed east of the Kuril Islands Thursday night. Models show the low center tracking east, passing the Date Line Saturday 5/30, and occluding south of Kodiak by Monday 6/1. The best surf potential for Hawaii is when the fetch stretches east of the Date Line 5/30-31 with best aim at Hawaii over the 320-340 degree band. Once the center is east of the longitudes of Hawaii, the aim is mostly west to east aiming seas at NW America. This event is not expected to give a N to NNE event like the one due this weekend 5/30-31.
A small event is predicted to build from 315-330 degrees Tuesday night. It should peak above the June average but near the May average Wednesday night from 320-340 degrees. The event should be short-lived.
Mid Friday on eastern shores has breakers from 30-90 degrees near an east side minimum. Low conditions should hold on Saturday.
See the latest NWS State Forecast Discussion regarding the moderate trade wind pattern locally for the weekend.
The axis of surface high pressure 5/29 is zonal, or west to east, near 28 N from well NNW to well NNE of Hawaii. This position is closer to Hawaii than normal for the season, and as a result the local trades and wind swell are below average. PacIOOS/CDIP Mokapu buoy off east Oahu 5/29 shows only 4 feet at 6 seconds. The short wave-period reflects the short fetch of the gentle to moderate trades upstream of Oahu.
Models do show a short-lived bump of 3 feet at 8 seconds from 45 degrees building Monday and dropping Tuesday. It was formed from fresh to strong trades 5/26-28 over 1000 nm NE of Hawaii. It could make for tiny to small breakers. In general, low conditions should hold on the east side through the period.
More northerly exposures should trend aforementioned 5/30-6/2.
Mid Friday on southern shores has slowly rising breakers near the summer average from a mix of Tasman and SE New Zealand sources out of 180-220 degrees. Heights are expected to hold about the same into Saturday.
A strong, austral, low-pressure pattern with central pressure below 950 mb tracked east along 60S 5/20-22 from SW to SE of New Zealand. It filled the southern Tasman Sea with seas over 30 feet 5/20. The Tasman component out of 208-220 degrees has arriving locally 5/29. It should peak late Friday 5/29 and slowly drop from this direction on the weekend.
The austral low pressure grew seas over 35 feet just S to SE of New Zealand 5/21-22 aimed highest at the Americas. The long-period swell trains rolled under the PacIOOS/CDIP American Samoa buoy 5/25-27. It showed moderate, long-period energy in the 16-20s band similar to the source that delivered the Memorial Day weekend swell locally. This gives better confidence that the surf should hold near average into the weekend from 180-220 degrees with a downward trend Sunday 5/31.
Strong trades east of the Tuamotu Islands 5/23-27 could add some southern hemisphere wind swell of 10-12s out of 140-160 degrees locally starting Saturday 5/30 and holding through mid week next week.
A new austral mid latitude pattern unfolded 5/25-28 that should bring surf in Hawaii above average next week. At the jet stream level, long-wave pattern formed with a broad ridge near New Zealand and a broad trough south of French Polynesia. At the surface, a severe-gale low pressure 5/25 near 60S to the SE of New Zealand tracked NE to near 45S south of French Polynesia 5/27. The track set up a captured fetch with highest seas aimed near to just east of Hawaii. JASON altimeter measured large area of seas over 30 feet 5/27. The system moved east of the Hawaii swell window 5/28-29.
The onset stage is due locally Monday PM 6/1 with a slow, inconsistent rise into mid Tuesday. The event should climb above average by mid Tuesday from 175-190 degrees. The event is predicted to peak well above average within late Tuesday to mid Wednesday.
As usual, the highest swath of swell is expected to near miss Hawaii to the east. This gives larger error bars for the local surf estimate. Stay tuned to the latest updates of the NWS surf forecast products 6/2-3 once the swell trains roll under the southern NOAA buoys and allow more confident breaker height estimates.
As usual, also for south swells, is the intermittent nature of high energy spurts and low energy lulls, as can be easily seen in the 30-minute measuring cycles by the PacIOOS/CDIP buoys as a jittery up and down signal within the overall long-term trend. The table above highlights the most energetic envelopes of a given forecast day, or active spurts with larger and more frequent sets. Lulls of minimal surf tend to occur more frequently and pronounced for sources that are further away, such as the 4000 nm travel on average for south swells in Hawaii. This makes south swells in Hawaii more prone to the low energy envelopes (lulls), which can give a false sense of security and increase hazard.
Into the long range, the S swell should hold above average 6/4 and drop near average 6/5 from 170-190 degrees. A fast-moving, severe gale SE of New Zealand 5/29-30 could keep near average surf centered on 6/7 from 180-200 degrees.
The small NW to NNW event arriving 6/3 should slowly drop 6/4 as the direction veers toward N. It should fade out 6/5. In the north Pacific to the NW to N of Hawaii, summery conditions are predicted 6/1-3, that should lead to minimal WNW to NNE surf locally for the weekend of 6/6-7.
East side is modelled to slowly increase within 6/4-5 building to near average 4/6 from 40-90 degrees.
Long range forecasts are subject to high uncertainty.
The next Collaborative Forecast will be updated Monday, June 1.
This forecast was produced through the collaborative efforts of NWS and NCEI. Please send suggestions to firstname.lastname@example.org or call the Warning Coordination Meteorologist at 808-973-5275.
ADDITIONAL RESOURCES: See https://www.weather.gov/hfo/marine